2.5 · Technical Risk2.5 · 技术风险
Four risks, each paired with its mitigation四项风险，各自配有应对
What Could Still Break
仍然可能出问题的地方
A diligence team will find these questions anyway. We would rather put them on the page in our own words, in our own order, before you do.
尽调团队迟早会找到这些问题。我们宁愿用我们自己的措辞、按我们自己的顺序，把它们先写在页面上。
2.5
Technical Risk, Stated Plainly技术风险，直说
A diligence team will find these questions anyway. We would rather put them on the page in our own words, in our own order, before you do.
尽调团队迟早会找到这些问题。我们宁愿用我们自己的措辞、按我们自己的顺序，把它们先写在页面上。
Risk风险
Process repeatability at scale规模化工艺复现
Exposure暴露
Parameters tuned in the pilot bay may drift in a differently shaped module, in a different climate, with different water chemistry.在中试舱内调好的参数，在形状不同、气候不同、水质不同的模块中可能漂移。
Mitigation应对
Module #1 is specified as a replica of the pilot geometry; the envelope is only varied after three identical consecutive batches.第 1 个商业模块完全复制中试舱几何结构；只有连续三批一致后，才改变边界条件。
Risk风险
Patent not yet granted专利尚未授权
Exposure暴露
Preliminary examination is a formal gate, not a novelty determination. Scope can be narrowed during substantive examination.初步审查是形式门槛，不是新颖性认定。实质审查阶段权利要求范围可能被限缩。
Mitigation应对
Bundled with trade-secret protection over the parameter packs, which are not published in the application. Two independent layers.同时以商业秘密保护参数包（申请文件不公开该部分），形成两层独立保护。
Risk风险
Energy intensity能耗强度
Exposure暴露
Energy is ¥1.85 of the ¥6.61 cost — 28%. Under high tariffs the margin compresses, and the margin is the whole value proposition.能耗占 ¥6.61 成本中的 ¥1.85，即 28%。电价偏高时毛利率被压缩，而毛利率正是全部价值主张。
Mitigation应对
Mist-phase scheduling and spectrum tuning are the two largest levers; the M24 cost target of ¥5.90 assumes both. Time-of-use tariffs and on-site solar are separately modelled.雾相排程与光谱调优是两个最大杠杆；M24 的 ¥5.90 成本目标已假设两者均实现。峰谷电价与就地光伏另行建模。
Risk风险
Consistency across batches批次间一致性
Exposure暴露
Current coefficient of variation is under 8%. A coffee chain needs consistency before it needs excellence — drift is a commercial failure even if quality stays high on average.目前变异系数低于 8%。咖啡连锁需要一致性先于卓越——即使平均品质仍然很高，参数漂移也是商业失败。
Mitigation应对
CV is tracked per batch and published in the quarterly brief. The M4 milestone requires a third-party cupping panel to confirm it independently.每批次追踪变异系数并写入季度简报。M4 里程碑要求第三方杯测机构独立确认。
Energy and repeatability are the two risks most likely to move the cost model. We have not resolved them; we have scoped them as the two things the first commercial module exists to measure.能耗与可复现性是最可能改变成本模型的两项风险。我们没有解决它们；我们把它们界定为首个商业模块存在的意义——就是要测量这两件事。