The weights below are our own subjective estimates, written down so they can be argued with. A scenario table whose probabilities are not stated is a marketing document, not an analytical one.
下面的权重是我们自己的主观估计，写出来就是为了被质疑。一张不写明概率的情景表是营销材料，不是分析。
| Scenario情景 | Trigger触发条件 | Outcome class结果类别 | Gross multiple on entry相对进入价的毛倍数 | Subjective weight主观权重 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base基准 | Six-module replication shown; first 50,000 seedlings delivered to a paying customer; cupping and ESG baseline published6模块可复制性验证；首批 50,000 株交付付费客户；杯测与 ESG 基线发布 | Mid-market acquisition or growth round中型并购或成长期轮 | 3.0–5.0× | 45% |
| Upside乐观 | 30-module cluster committed; first Southeast Asia order; patent granted; certification secured30模块集群落地；东南亚首单；专利授权；认证落地 | Sector-defining outcome定义赛段的结局 | 8–12× | 20% |
| Slow稳健偏慢 | Process locked and module #1 running, but replication delayed 6–12 months工艺固化、模块 #1 运行，但复制推迟 6–12 个月 | Modest trade sale小额并购退出 | 1.2–1.8× | 25% |
| Downside下行 | Milestone not met; orderly wind-down. Patent family and parameter library remain as separable assets里程碑未达成，进入有序清算。专利族与参数库可作为独立资产保留 | Residual asset value资产残值 | 0–0.5× | 10% |
Scenarios and weights are our own subjective estimates prepared for discussion. They are not forecasts, projections or guarantees. Any investment decision should be based on independent diligence.情景与权重为我方为主观估计，供讨论使用，非预测、非前瞻指引、非保证。任何投资决策应基于独立尽职调查。