3.3 · Two Curves3.3 · 两条关键曲线 3.4 · The 18-Month Ladder3.4 · 18个月里程碑阶梯

Two Curves Decide Whether This Works

两条曲线决定这件事成不成

The cycle curve is the product claim. The cost curve is the investment claim. Neither is a forecast — the first is measured, the second is a target we are willing to be held to.

周期曲线是产品主张,成本曲线是投资主张。两者都不是预测——第一条是实测,第二条是我们愿意被拿来问责的目标。

3.3

The Two Curves That Matter两条关键曲线

Cycle Time: Soil Nursery vs Our Process周期对比:土壤苗圃 vs 我们的工艺
Months from cutting to transplant-grade seedling. Lower is better.从扦插到达移栽标准所需月数。越低越好。
Cost per Seedling Roadmap (¥)单株成本路径(元)
M0 ¥6.61 today → M24 ¥5.90 after replication and control-logic tuningM0 今天 ¥6.61 → M24 复制与控制逻辑优化后 ¥5.90
Cycle advantage周期优势
3–4×
4 months against 12–18 months for soil nursery — three batches a year instead of one4 个月对土壤苗圃的 12–18 个月——年产三批而非一批
Cost at M24M24 成本
¥5.90
Target, not yet achieved. Depends on energy and labour compression.目标值,尚未实现。取决于能耗与人工的压缩幅度。
What the gap buys这个价差买到什么
¥0.71
Per seedling. At 615,000 pcs/module/yr that is ≈¥437,000 of annual margin per module.每株。以每模块年产 615,000 株计,相当于每模块每年约 ¥43.7 万毛利。

The cycle figures come from batch records at pilot scale. The cost roadmap is a target derived from the cost model, not a measured outcome — the M24 figure is what the patent's control logic is supposed to deliver, and it is the number to hold us to.周期数据来自中试尺度的批次记录。成本路径是由成本模型推导出的目标值,而非实测结果——M24 数字是专利控制逻辑应当交付的结果,也是你们应当拿来问责我们的数字。

3.4

The 18-Month Milestone Ladder18个月里程碑阶梯

Each rung below is a gate, not a description of activity. Capital is released only when the rung above it has been certified — which means a missed milestone is visible at the next release point rather than at the end of the round.

下面每一级都是闸门,而不是对活动的描述。只有在上一级被确认之后,资金才会释放——这意味着一个未达成的里程碑会在下一个释放点就被看见,而不是等到本轮结束。

Milestone里程碑 Window时间窗 Certification test确认标准 Tranche释放比例
M1 · Parameter library documentedM1 · 参数库文档化 Month 1–3第 1–3 月 Recipe written down and reproducible by a person who is not one of the founders; cost per seedling ≤ ¥6.30配方成文且可由两位创始人以外的人复现;单株成本 ≤ ¥6.30 25%
M2 · Commercial module #1 commissionedM2 · 首个商业模块投产 Month 4–9第 4–9 月 One standard module at commercial geometry running; measured output and cost per viable seedling一个按商业几何尺寸的标准模块投入运行;实测产量与单株可用苗成本 20%
M3 · First paid shipmentM3 · 首批付费出货 Month 10–12第 10–12 月 50,000 seedlings delivered to a paying customer with an invoice, not a letter of intent向付费客户交付 50,000 株,凭发票而非意向书 25%
M4 · Third-party cupping & ESG baselineM4 · 第三方杯测与 ESG 基线 Month 12–15第 12–15 月 Independent cupping panel result published; accredited water-footprint and carbon baseline issued发布独立杯测结果;出具经认可的用水与碳基线 20%
M5 · Six-module replicationM5 · 6 模块复制 Month 15–18第 15–18 月 Unit economics replicated across six modules; Series A data package complete单位经济在 6 个模块上完成复制;A 轮数据包齐备 10%

Windows and tranche weights are our opening proposal and are open to negotiation, including re-sequencing if a backer prefers different gates. A milestone that cannot be certified simply delays the next tranche; it does not trigger repayment or penalty.时间窗与释放比例为我方初步提案,可协商,包括按出资方偏好调整闸门顺序。无法确认的里程碑只会延后下一笔释放,不触发还款或罚则。

Validated & Not已验证与未完成18-Month Ladder18个月里程碑
← Previous← 上一页
Validated & Not已验证与未完成
Next →下一页 →
Land & Demand Thesis土地与需求逻辑